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Kara R
Posts:119
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Posted:01/12/2006 21:54:32 |
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There was a “safety expert” (Bob Stuber) on CNN last night talking about the women in Utah who was attacked by a guy at a check cashing place… He said something interesting.. that even if someone has a gun and is trying to get you into a car, you should still run ‘cause there is only an 11% chance that you would be fatally shot.. Does this sound right?
Transcript:
COOPER: Bob, when an attacker has a weapon like a gun, does it change the way you should interact with them?
STUBER: No, it really doesn't. You -- you still want to defend yourself. Just because he points a gun at you, that doesn't mean you get in the car and go with him.
As a matter of fact, if you get in the car and go with somebody, there's about a 98 percent chance that you're going to get killed. If you run, there's only a 50 percent chance the person's even going to shoot at you.
Of that, it's only a 50 percent chance he will hit you. And, of that, it's only a 50 percent chance it will be a mortal wound. You end up with about an 11 percent chance of even getting injured if you run, a 98 chance of dying if you get in the car.
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Bill Price
Posts:94
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Posted:01/14/2006 13:58:23 |
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Yes, this definitely makes sense. Byers Sensei refers to this often when we're training for real-world situations as part of Nana Fukuro Jujitsu.
It's somewhat similar to the unit of measure squared rules we work with in engineering. As you move away from the gun, your odds of being hit decrease exponentially. That added to the fact that the attacker is presented with a new situation to which he has to respond and the time involved in making a determination and acting upon it greatly decrease the chance you will be shot.
That said, there are ways to go about it. It's all part of preparation for situations like this. The primary reason we train in scenarios is so that when something does happen, we don't freeze up.
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Kara R
Posts:119
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Posted:01/19/2006 21:43:29 |
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Ok.. this is a little scary since the apartment complex in the story is down the road from me.. and it happened around 9pm..
“The woman said the three boys approached her with a silver handgun, demanded her purse and then fled the scene with it.”
http://www.news14charlotte.com/content/headlines/?SecID=41&ArID=111358
I take it if you are going to pepper spray someone with a gun that you should move to the side so they don’t “accidentally” shoot you when they get hit and it starts to burn (instead of on purpose since they are trying to rob you)?? I’d be really pissed if I got shot by accident when if I had just given them my purse that would (hopefully) have been the end of it.
Also, how do you decide if it is worth it to fight/ run if someone is trying to rob you? A purse has more in it then just cash (drivers license with your address etc).. but is it worth getting shot for a few bucks?
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Bill Price
Posts:94
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Posted:01/20/2006 07:47:58 |
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I do not carry a purse, so I have no authority from which to speak, but...
I think I'd have a couple of rules.
1: Never carry anything in your purse/wallet worth dying for.
2: If someone wants it bad enough they're willing to threaten deadly force, let them have the thing. The disarming scenarios are usually prefaced with taking the smart options first, if available; compliance when all that is involved is trivial property, and flight if that is reasonable.
That being said, if a reasonable opportunity appears to kick the jerk's butt, kick it with great malice aforethought.
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